Cold, Rainy Tuesday – Severe Threat Thursday

The first of two disturbances this week bringing rain and showers across the region this morning. Some areas of freezing rain for the mountains could lead to some icy spots this morning. Rain will taper off by early afternoon for most with a cooler day on tap – highs will only reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. Warmer through Wednesday with temps back in the mid to upper 60s and a few late-day showers, but our attention goes to Thursday for the threat of strong to severe storms.

Timing as with most systems for us here in the region is everything. If this front moves through earlier in the day, the severe threat will be limited to areas east of I-77. If this front moves in during peak daytime heating, then that severe threat will increase across the majority of the region south of I-40. The Storm Prediction Center has us at a Level 3 out of 5 for Thursday afternoon. This means potential for damaging wind, large hail, and short-lived tornadoes. Localized flooding could also be a concern with heavy downpours. Now is a good time to get those severe weather plans in place.

After this front passes, conditions will become more stable for the weekend. Highs will fall back to the 60s Friday afternoon from the low 70s Thursday. However, light showers will keep it feeling even cooler. Sunshine returns this weekend, but temps will remain well below average with highs only reaching the 50s Saturday and Sunday.