THURSDAY PM UPDATE
An intense winter storm is taking shape across the middle of the country. Winter weather alerts stretch 2,000 miles from Texas to Maine.
The Carolinas will miss out on wintry precipitation from this one, but it will bring widespread rain to the area on Friday. We have been watching for another area of low pressure that could develop in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and ride along a front that will stall to our south. Computer models have been consistent in showing this low pressure well south and east of the Carolinas, therefore, moisture will not be able to make it back into the area. Confidence has grown that we will stay dry through the weekend.
BOTTOM-LINE:
The trend for a drier weekend continues.
TALKING MODEL OUTPUT:
With systems far out we look at long range computer models. The GFS (American) and the European. There are many versions of these models which are called ensembles. Multiple simulations are run, each with a slight variation of its initial conditions – this allowing for a range of possibilities. There are also deterministic models which only show one output – this is where we can see drastic changes every 6 hours. The deterministic model output is often times what you see online. It is what some people post to grab your attention when often times not explaining the range of possibilities. There is no possible way to know exactly when or if we will see wintry precipitation this weekend. For now, we watch.
