A bit warmer through Thursday, major winter storm likely this weekend

Happy Hump Day! We’re off to another chilly start this Wednesday morning, although temperatures should crack 50° across much of the Piedmont and Foothills for the first time since Saturday. Highs swell further near 60° around the Metro on Thursday, but that’s as warm as it gets before several cold fronts tout the arrival of Arctic air from the northwest. Temperatures don’t come crashing down all at once, but highs will struggle to clear the 30s and 40s once again on Friday. A few scattered rain showers may roll through later in the day as we wrap up the workweek, but they won’t amount to much. The real story is what happens this weekend.

Confidence remains high that the Carolinas see a major winter storm roll through between Saturday and Sunday, but models have sharply lurched northward with the incoming storm’s track. To be clear – there’s very little chance we miss out on significant winter precipitation, but the trend is *not* a snow-lover’s friend. While some snow is possible on the front end of this system as it pushes into the Carolinas, this is looking more and more like a significant ice storm for areas along and south of I-40. There’s still time for meaningful changes in the forecast, but medium-range models suggest upwards of a half-inch of ice may pile up along the I-85 corridor, which would be crippling for infrastructure and travel. The best chance for a pure-snow event currently lies north of the NC-VA border, with ice and sleet becoming more likely the closer you head toward the NC-SC boundary. No matter what comes down in your neighborhood – freezing rain, sleet, or snow – the totals *will* be significant and impactful.

Another major concern is how cold the air will be behind this system. Whatever wintry accumulations we see will likely stick around for several days as temperatures struggle to clear the freezing mark around the Carolinas. The American (GFS) model is showing lows well below zero across much of North Carolina on Monday night. Assuming thousands – possibly millions – of people will be without power, this may turn into a serious situation very quickly.

Today: Mainly sunny early, then clouds build late. High: 52°. Wind: SW 5-15.

Tonight: Cloudy. Noticeably milder. Low: 41°. Wind: SW 5-10.

Thursday: Variable clouds with a stray shower. Warmer. High: 60°. Wind: SW 5-10.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers late. Low: 41°. Wind: Light.

Friday: Cloudy with a few scattered showers. High: 44°. Wind: NE 5-10.