Unsettled Start to March

Nicole Madden,

AM Headlines
  • Clouds fill in today, above average temps
  • Rain, heavy at times begins tonight
    • A few storms possible
      • Need to watch for any storms that can hold on for Thu AM
  • Rain w/ a few downpours Thu AM
  • Lull in rain Thu PM-Fri AM
  • Severe Threat Fri PM
    • SPC has the area under a slight risk or level 2 (out of 5) for severe weather
    • Damaging wind and tornadoes = biggest threats
  • Cooler and drier weekend
Discussion
Clouds fill in today – Rain and storms begin tonight
March will be living up to the first half of the folklore and will come in like a lion. After a pleasant stretch of above average temps and quiet weather, things are changing. Clouds will fill in today as a boundary lies mainly stationary across the region. Highs will reach the low to mid 70s. The first of a series of disturbances moves in tonight. Rain could be heavy at times after midnight, which will make for a wet commute Thursday. We need to watch for any storms that can race into the region from the west early Friday morning, as they pack a little bit of a punch with strong winds and torrential rain. Rain will continue through the first half of Thursday with a lull in rain Thursday night into early Friday.
Severe Threat Friday
A warm front will lift across the region Friday leading to a surge of warm, moisture-rich air. A strong cold front to our west will likely produce a severe outbreak beginning in East Texas and continuing through the south Thursday night. Winds will increase through the day Friday with temps reaching the mid 70s. Models have slowed the progression of a line of thunderstorms that will race ahead of the cold front. This is likely where we will find a widespread threat of damaging wind. A few cells could rotate along that line, which indicates there is still a chance of tornadoes. The biggest concern will be for any storms that develop ahead of that line. These storms will be able to soak up all the energy around them and pose the greatest threat of tornadoes. Because the models have trended a bit slower on the arrival of storms, it does take away some of the instability available for these storms to flourish. However, in the past we usually see these storms arrive earlier than the models suggest, which means that severe threat remains from Friday afternoon through the evening. We’ll be able to better fine-tune this forecast for timing and impacts over the next 36 hours.
Dry and Seasonable Weekend
Rain will taper off early Saturday morning with a cooler but seasonable and dry weekend. Highs will reach the low 70s Saturday before falling into the low 40s overnight. Sunday and Monday temps will reach the mid to upper 60s under sunny skies.