Another Active Hurricane Season Likely
A major reason for the frenetic forecast? La NiΓ±a is likely to occur this season.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — It’s almost that time of year again.
Seven of the past eight hurricane seasons have produced an above-average number of named storms and three of the past four have produced at least 20 tropical storms – and it looks like 2024 is poised to keep the prolific trend spinning.
Colorado State University has released its official forecast for this year – and if it rings true, we’re in for a doozy of a summer. CSU’s outlook is its most active prediction ever: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The other major forecasting agencies haven’t released their predictions yet, but they will likely be on the higher end, as well.
A major reason for the frenetic forecast? La NiΓ±a is likely to occur this season.
But, what exactly *is* La NiΓ±a?
I’m glad you asked.
La NiΓ±a is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America. This cooling weakens the trade winds near the equator, which means less wind shear is available to weaken or disrupt incoming tropical systems. This typically leads to more frequent, stronger storms.
And the Atlantic is already off to a hot start – literally. Sea surface temperatures are already 3-5 degrees above average this April, setting an all-time monthly record. Water temperatures in the Atlantic’s main development region currently reside in the 80s, warm enough to support strong tropical systems.
