On Monday, December 7th, 2020 a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) occurred and was associated with a C7 solar flare. Due to the strong solar flare, the Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a Geomagnetic Storm Watch for December 9th – 11th. The Aurora forecast shows a possible 7 on the Kp index for Thursday which is very high. For the areas shaded in green – it is not a guarantee you will see the northern lights, but a possibility!
The KP number is a number that measures the strength of the aurora. On Thursday, December 10th the KP number is forecast to be a 7 indicating a geomagnetic storm. The KP index ranges from 0-9 (0 = calm; 5 = geomagnetic storm). Space weather predictions are more accurate the closer the storm is. Click here for a good place to look for the latest predictions: 30-minute aurora forecast from the SWPC
The area between the green shaded region and the blue line in the image above represents a very low chance to see the Northern Lights. The best chance will be from (east to west) New York to Chicago over to Portland and points north. The Northern Lights have been visible in North Carolina before in 2004, 2008, and 2010, but if you’re in North Carolina do not get your hopes up for this event. If the forecast verifies it will not be like the pictures and videos you think of, rather a green tint to the sky along the horizon.
If you have friends or family across the northern 1/3 of the United States be sure to tell them to look outside when it gets dark (Wednesday night, Thursday morning, and Thursday night) with a view of the northern horizon.
