CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami has started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six as of 5 PM Monday.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, while Martinique and Guadeloupe, Dominica, including Culebra and Vieques, and the U.S. Virgin Islands remain under watches.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six is currently east of the Lesser Antilles and the road ahead will be rough with land interaction likely along with increasing dry air and wind shear. This will likely become a Tropical Depression or even Tropical Storm Fred in the next 24-hours. There is still a lot of uncertainty with PTC 6, but IF this system holds together and IF this system turns north, we could see some moisture early next week.
So, why is the NHC so bullish on PTC 6? As many of us know, tropical storms require warm, open ocean water to survive and strengthen. Luckily for these storms (and not so lucky for everyone else), bathwater-like temperatures have set up shop across the Atlantic. In general, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) need to be above 80° for tropical development. As shown below, everything in the reddish tint is at or above 80°. In fact, some spots in the Caribbean and Gulf are even approaching 90°. Simply put, more heat means more energy for these storms. 
Another important key to the development of storms is shear, or in this case, the lack thereof. Tropical systems HATE shear, which is a changing of wind speed and direction with height and distance. Too much shear typically rips organized storms apart, which can kill a tropical storm or hurricane in its tracks. Once again, things seem to be rolling in development’s direction.
It’s important to keep in mind that the peak of hurricane season is only one month away. On average, 80-90% of all hurricanes form between August and October, peaking in mid-September. No matter how active or inactive a season is, remember: it only takes one storm for a season to be memorable. The next name on the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season list is Fred.
