You won’t find the Panthers cap-strapped on GM Dave Gettleman’s watch.
Gettleman is a fiscally-conservative GM yet still a gambler when it comes to young players with what he perceives as having a rewarding up-side.
Gettleman gave Cam Newton a five-year $103.8 million deal last off-season. A pretty big gamble at the time given Cam’s (30-31-1) record as a starter in the regular season and 82-54 touchdown to interception ratio. The $20.76 million per year average that the Panthers are currently paying Cam, which was a smidgen above Matt Ryan, is now considered one of the best bargains in the NFL.
Can you imagine the haul Cam would be worth now?
How about the other side of the argument. The Josh Norman case.
We know how it ends—the Panthers cutting the franchise tag and Norman winding up in Washington with a 5-year, $75 million dollar deal.
But let’s take a look at the process and turn back the clock.
Norman had a second half of 2014 where he made a name for himself—notably holding Julio Jones considerably below his averages. Jones averaged 7-receptions and 106.2 yards-per-game in 2014. In two games Norman held Julio to a combined 10-receptions and 117 yards.
Zero touchdowns.
Gettleman was willing to gamble on Norman for a long-term deal before the 2015 season, albeit calculated gamble. Per the Charlotte Observer, the offer before last year’s breakout season was 5-years, $37.5 million.
Josh’s gamble on himself paid off.
So that brings us to the Kawann Short case, which, in my opinion, will be a dilemma for the Panthers. The breakout season happened too early for Gettleman’s liking. The price tag on Kawann Short’s future contract is now too high.
Prior to last year’s 11.0 sack season, a franchise best for Panthers at the defensive tackle position, Short compiled a combined 5.0 sacks in 32 games. He only cracked the starting lineup in nine of those games. The sample size was not there to think about throwing new money at Kawann Short.
But a calendar year consisting of 19 games (16 regular season and three playoff games) and Short shined so much with his starting opportunity that he rightfully deserves to be paid as a top defensive tackle.It’s not far-fetched to say that Short should be paid like a top five defensive tackle. If you took the current top 5 defensive tackle average salaries, (Suh, Cox, Dareus, McCoy, Jackson) Short’s future contract would come in at an average of $16.47 million per year. At 27-years old, the time is now for Short to land the big deal. I would assume he would want a large 5-year deal but may be willing to give a slight discount to avoid the franchise tag.
Does this sound like Dave Gettleman economics? Paying for a star that’s already born?
Yes, Gettleman values big bodies on the defensive line—but history somewhat shows the risk/reward may not follow the typical script to keep Kawann Short in Carolina.
