A snowplow pushes snow off of the road near Boone, NC, on December 9, 2018.
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — 2020 has been a wild year so far not only across the world, but also here at home in the Carolinas. Weather-wise, we’ve seen everything from tornadoes, flooding, and hurricanes just within the past 300 days. The Tar Heel State even shook under the strongest earthquake to directly hit the Carolinas in nearly 100 years. One notable thing that has been missing from this doozy of a year, however, has been a significant snowfall.
It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen snow totaling over one inch here in the Charlotte area. How long, exactly? We have to go all the way back to December 9, 2018, to find it: a staggering 682 days ago. Since then, the Queen City has seen a measly 0.4″ of snow. So, when will we see the white stuff (and how much of it) as we turn the page from 2020 into 2021? Let’s talk first about what will factor the most into this year’s forecast.
La Niña Takes Center Stage
La Niña has been in full swing for the past several months. If you haven’t heard of La Niña, let’s break it down into its most simple parts. La Niña, which translates to “the girl” in English from Spanish, occurs when sudden cooling occurs off of the Pacific coastline of South America. Sea surface temperatures in this area often drop 5-10º below normal during this phenomenon. This leads to a below-average hurricane season in the Pacific, while the Atlantic often becomes a breeding ground for tropical systems, as we have seen so far this year. So you may have heard of La Niña and the role it plays during the hurricane season, but did you know it affects our winter, as well?
A typical wintertime pattern during La Niña, via NOAA.
In general, La Niña causes the South to be warmer and drier, while the Mid-Atlantic states see a wetter winter. With North and South Carolina both located smack in the middle of the two regions, we can generally expect a warmer, wetter winter. Let’s look at the hard data for the past five winters in the Charlotte area during La Niña.
In years past, the presence of La Niña has had a sort of boom-or-bust effect on Queen City winters. On average, the Charlotte Metro sees roughly four inches of snow from November to April every year. Out of the past five La Niña winters, only one year was significantly above-average in terms of snowfall (2010-11 with 6.1″). The other four were either near-or-below average since 2007. According to recent trends, the Carolinas generally see a warmer winter with lower-than-average snowfall totals during La Niña.
NOAA’s Winter Outlook
La Niña’s recent trends don’t bode well for a bountiful snowfall forecast, but perhaps the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s three-month outlook will set the stage for a whiter winter this year. Let’s take a look:
While the temperature outlook only stretches through January, it’s worth noting that our snowiest month for the Charlotte area is the first one of the year. Unfortunately for you winter-weather-lovers, this is more bad news. Above-average temperatures are expected through January 2021.
The outlook for rain and snowfall over the next three months looks bleak, as well. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for the next three months to end below-average in terms of precipitation. In general, NOAA’s outlooks for both precipitation and temperature look largely similar to what is expected during a La Niña winter.
Our Forecast
Before revealing our WeatherWise Winter Forecast, it should be noted that this outlook paints a broad brush as to what this winter season will look like. The Foothills and Piedmont often see a majority of any given winter’s snowfall come down in only one or two days. That being said, it’s not looking good for snow-lovers. All signs are pointing towards the 682-day streak surviving for yet another winter. Although things could change as more data comes in for February and March, it looks like the WCCB Charlotte viewing area will see another winter with above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall.
It won’t only be a bad snow year for the Piedmont and Foothills, but the High Country will likely join in on the misery, as well. After coming out of an awful year for snow in our mountain communities, it looks like this year’s winter will be another one to forget. On average, towns above 3,000 feet in North Carolina see about 30 inches of snow. At best, most of the area will see about half of that. While nothing is set in stone yet, get ready for another disappointing snow season across the Carolinas.
