CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The 14th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. As of Sunday’s 8 PM advisory, Tropical Storm Nicholas is located 170 miles east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico, or about 500 miles south of Houston, Texas. While the fledgling system will not have much time to organize or strengthen before landfall early Tuesday, it will still dump a deluge of rainfall over Texas and Louisiana over the coming days. In fact, some models have Nicholas pouring out upwards of 15 inches in east Texas, with locally higher amounts possible. The key for Texas will be the storm’s track. Right now, forecasters are calling for Nicholas to slow down to a crawl shortly after landfall, which could give communities in the area months’ worth of rain over just a few days.
While Nicholas almost certainly won’t be as bad as 2017’s Category 4 Harvey, it will be taking a similar track. Nicholas should make landfall overnight Monday into Tuesday as a high-end tropical storm or a low-end hurricane. Fortunately, wind and storm surge likely won’t be a huge issue, but inland flooding and the threat of tornadoes will make a rough few days for the western Gulf Coast.
Unfortunately, the heaviest of the rain could impact areas that are ill-equipped to handle such a torrent of water. Right now, models are suggesting at least 15 inches of rain over the concrete-paved Houston Metro. Localized amounts around the area could top out even higher than that. If you know anyone in the Houston area, make sure they’re making preparations for Nicholas.
Closer to Home
While Nicholas is snagging the limelight for now, a separate potential system may nab headlines in the Carolinas by the end of the week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring an area a few hundred miles southwest of the Carolinas for development. Right now, the NHC is giving this region a 50% of becoming a tropical system over the next five days. While any future storm likely won’t give us any problems in the western half of the Carolinas, we’ll need to monitor this future system closely. Recent model trends put the storm near the Carolina coastline by Friday. Rain and wind may impact Carolina beaches for much of the second half of the week into the weekend.
