Hurricane Ian to Make Landfall Wednesday PM

AM Headlines:
  • Cooler through the end of the week
  • Breezy weather begins Thursday
  • Showers from Ian begin Friday
  • Potential Flooding Threat Greatest Friday PM – Early Sunday
Discussion:
Temps will be cooler today as high pressure continues to build across the region. Highs will only reach the low 70s with overnight lows falling into the upper 40s to low 50s. Clouds will build ahead of Ian over the course of the day Thursday. Wind will pick up, thanks to a building pressure gradient between the high to our north and low pressure (Ian) south. Gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible. The track of Ian has shifted once again with landfall likely from Fort Myers to near Sarasota as a major category 4 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds, catastrophic flooding with rainfall totals up to 2 feet, and significant storm surge up to 12 feet from Naples to Sarasota is all possible. This storm will track over Orlando and off the east coast of Florida near Daytona Beach Thursday night and travel along the east coast east of Jacksonville by Friday morning. From there it could strengthen, bringing heavy rain and significant storm surge to the SC and GA coast, moving inland near the GA/SC border. It will travel through the midlands into the western Carolinas by Saturday evening. For us, the biggest threat will be heavy rain leading to flash flooding. 2-4″ of rainfall is possible across the Piedmont with up to 6″ of rain for the foothills and high country with the heaviest rain falling Friday night through early Sunday morning. The remnant low will likely keep scattered showers and rain in the forecast into early next week.
Biggest Local Impacts:
Timing of Greatest Impacts – Friday PM – Sunday AM
  • Heavy Rain – Localized Flooding Threat
    • Piedmont – 2-4″
    • Foothills/High Country – 4-6″
      • Concern for landslide threat
  • Wind Damage
    • Strongest sustained winds Thursday 15-20 mph
    • Peak Gusts Friday PM-Sat AM 30-40 mph, Mountains 40-50 mph
      • Could cause trees to fall and power outages
  • Tornadoes
    • Limited – the atmosphere will be pretty stable