Forecasting Foliage With the Fall Color Guy

Wind, temperature, sunlight, and rainfall are all part of a delicate chromatic equation this time of year.
James Scott,

GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN, N.C. — β€œWhen the days begin to get a little shorter and the color begins to pop,” Chapel Hill, NC, resident Claude Burton gleams, “That’s where it’s at.”

And where it’s at is along the slopes of the High Country.

β€œThis year, it’s looking pretty good.”

That’s Dr. Howard Neufeld, a professor of biology at App State. But you might know him on Facebook as the β€˜Fall Color Guy.’

β€œI drive up and down the parkway for about as far down as Asheville, all the way up to near the Virginia border and check it out. I start at the higher elevations because color starts there first.”

Fall color season typically peaks by mid-October in the mountains, but a variety of factors goes into making a season memorable… or just one to forget.

Wind, temperature, sunlight, rainfall… they’re all part of a delicate chromatic equation this time of year.

But, ideally…

β€œThe best conditions are sunny days, but cool days, and cool nights. And by cool, I mean I’d like to see it down in the 40s – even the low 40s.”

That’s because the most eye-catching color on the fall spectrum needs sunlight to develop.

β€œThe red pigments aren’t there in the summer,” Neufeld explains.

“They’re made now, this time of year. The conditions that favor them are cool, clear days and cool nights. The compound is called anthocyanin, it’s the same thing that colors wine red and blueberry juice, pomegranate juice. They come from sugars that the plant gets from photosynthesis. So, if the days are sunny and cool, then they do a lot of photosynthesis and make a lot of sugars, a lot of bright red colors.”

And if it’s sunny, in comes the money.

β€œIt’s Boone and Asheville’s busiest tourist season. It brings some, we estimate, $500-800 million to the economy in just September, October, November, those three months. It’s crucially important to the economy.”

But what’s key to Dr. Neufeld’s passion is a generational lesson.

β€œI like that the fact that people are getting out and looking at nature. And I figure, if they’re coming out here to see these beautiful colors, they’re going to want their children to see it, too. So, maybe they’re thinking, β€˜How can I protect the environment so, when they grow up, they can see the same thing I did?’”

Peak color season varies every year, but the Charlotte area can usually expect the most vibrant shades to arrive by the first week of November.