Multiple Rounds Of Strong To Severe Storms

Nicole Madden,

AM Headlines
  • Severe Threat Increases
  • Hot & Stormy Forecast
  • Thursday Cold Front
  • Sunny and Pleasant Weekend
WeatherWise Alert 3 Rounds:
Round #1 Afternoon: 2-8pm
Scattered Storms, Cluster of Storms
Threats:
Damaging Wind Gusts 60+ mph
Large Hail Quarter to Ping Pong Sized Hail
Isolated Tornado Threat
Round #2 Overnight – Thu AM: 12AM – 8AM
Line of Rain & Storms, DiscreteΒ Cells
Threats:
Damaging Wind Gusts
Isolated Tornado Threat
Localized Flooding Threat

Round #3 Thursday PM: Depends on how the AM Plays Out

Discussion

Severe Threat #1
We’ve got a quiet, but muggy start this morning. The air feels thick as temps sit in the 60s across the area. We may see a few showers andΒ storms for our mountain communities, but the area will be primedΒ for an active day of strong to severe weather. Temps will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s with plenty of moisture flowing into the region from the Gulf to provide fuel for storms. We’ll get breaks in the cloud cover allowing temps to heat up quickly and relatively high deep layer shear to keep these storms going. Cold front won’t arrive until tomorrow. But, we will see storms fire up after 1-2pm in the mountainsΒ and work their way south through the afternoon and evening. Damaging wind, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats as these storms will moving quickly. As of now, low level shear is lacking which is keeping our tornado threat low, but again not zero.
Severe Threat #2
After midnight, ahead of the cold front we will likely seeΒ  more of a line of storms progress through the region. The cold front will act a trigger for these storms, so we need to watch for any cells ahead of the line that could rotate. Otherwise, damaging winds and heavy rain leading to localized flooding will be the biggest concerns through Thursday morning as the front slows andΒ meanders through the region.
Severe Threat #3
IF these storms don’t materialize overnight, or they die out. We will likely see storms fire up again Thursday afternoon with that severe threat highlighted near and east of I-85.
Pleasant and Dry Weekend
The main severe threat will end Thursday, however since the cold front is looking like it will take its sweet time to push south and east of the area, we could see more showers and isolated storms develop through midday Friday. Cooler and drier air will arrive for the weekend. It will be beautiful with temps in the mid 70s, low humidity and sunny skies through Sunday.