Scattered Storms Saturday, Watching the Tropics

SCENARIOS on PTC9 – Soon to be Imelda:
1. The greatest possibility at this time will be direct impacts to the Carolinas.
2. Another possibility, which is still not off the table, is Hurricane Humberto has influence on future Imelda and slingshots it out to sea. This scenario is less likely at this time.

If scenario 1 plays out, here are my early thoughts:

TIMING: Monday – Wednesday
RAINFALL: This will be the biggest threat, especially if the system stalls out. There could be a corridor that picks up 12+’’. For the WCCB Charlotte area, right now most models are showing 3-6’’+ from now until midweek next week. Where the heaviest rain sets up will depend on the final track. Also note, we are seeing days of scattered showers before any tropical moisture makes it to the area. The stalled front and future Imelda could mean significant flooding for some.
WIND: This too depends on the track. Most guidance shows this system at Tropical Storm or low end hurricane strength. The strongest winds will be north / northeast of the center.
STORM SURGE: Like any landfalling tropical system, storm surge is a threat. Due to the shape of the coast, those along and north of the center will have the greatest surge impact.
BOTTOMLINE: This is not a slam dunk forecast yet, but please be prepared.

Forecast:
Tonight: Scattered to numerous showers and storms through Saturday AM. Patchy fog. Cloudy. Lows: Upper 60s, near 70.

Saturday: Scattered to numerous showers and storms – especially in the AM. Rain coverage decreased by PM. Highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated PM showers. Highs in the upper 70s, near 80.

Monday – Wednesday: Watching for tropical impacts.

More on the tropics:
– Hurricane Humberto is strengthening and will become a major hurricane soon. We are still hoping Humberto will interact with future Imelda, but those chances are low for now. Humberto will curve around Bermuda and head out to sea.

Have a wonderful evening and a safe weekend!

Kaitlin