All eyes on the tropics

All eyes are on tropical depression nine over the Bahamas. This will become Tropical Storm Imelda later tonight as the storm begins to work towards the South Carolina coastline. Before we discuss Imelda, let’s go over the rest of our weekend. Expect scattered showers and storms this evening, with the highest probability of rain in the Foothills and High Country. Sunday we get a break from the rain, and even see some sunshine. Don’t rule out a stray shower or two, especially in the Sandhills, but overall much drier than the past 48 hours. Monday is when the forecast gets tricky, as Imelda gets close enough to influence our weather.

It’s important to know this is a particularly difficult forecast, as Imelda will be in a tug of war with atmospheric steering currents. So expect continued refinements to the forecast as the storm gets closer. The trend in the data over the past 24 hours has been for the storm to stay just offshore and stall out Monday through Wednesday. This is good news for the WCCB Charlotte viewing area, as less impacts would be brought inland. HOWEVER, even with that trend, I still expect rain over much of the area, including the potential for some flooding.

Upper level winds will be pulling in moisture from the storm even with it likely remaining slightly offshore. Monday and Tuesday look to have the highest chance of rain because of this. There will likely be a sharp cutoff with this rain, and it will likely set up near Charlotte. Right now the highest probability of heavy rain is for areas that are east of I-77 and south of I-85. Here we could see multiple inches of rain with the possibility of some flooding. By Wednesday, Hurricane Humberto will attempt to win its game of tug of war and pull Imelda far enough offshore that rain chances start to decrease locally. This looks to allow cool and drier air to filter in from the northeast.

By the end of next week, data once again diverge, with some models killing Imelda off over the Atlantic, and some once again trying to bring the storm back into the Carolinas as a weaker storm.

Coastal sections of South Carolina will see the highest impacts from this storm. Exact locations will be refined over the next day or so, but some surge, coastal flooding, heavy rain, and gusty winds are likely. The WCCB Charlotte weather team will continue to keep you Weather Wise as we track Imelda!

Tonight: Scattered showers and storms.  Low: 66°. Wind: SW 5

Sunday: Partly cloudy. A stray shower. High 81°. Wind: NE 5

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. A stray shower late. Low: 67°. Wind: ENE 5