CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Generally speaking, the Atlantic has been a hotbed for tropical activity over the past decade. Until this year, each of the past seven seasons had supported a named storm before June 1st. In 2020, the Atlantic Basin churned out a record-smashing 30 named storms. Last year was only the third (and second consecutive year) in history that the primary list of 21 names was exhausted.
Back in spring, all signs were pointing towards another active season. A warmer-than-average Atlantic. A weaker, but still extant La Niña that weakens disruptive trade winds over the open Atlantic. A wetter West African monsoon that should churn out more easterly tropical waves.
Typical influence of La Niña on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell.
And yet, as it stands right now, we’re on track for our first below-average season since 2015. If no named storm forms today (August 31st), this will be our first storm-free August in 25 years. At this time over the past two years, the 2020 and 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons had 13 and 11 named storms already under their belts, respectively. This year, as we turn the page into September, we only have three. Sixty days have come and gone since Tropical Storm Colin dissipated over eastern North Carolina on July 3rd. That’s our second-longest mid-season storm drought in recorded history.
So, what’s going on?
Despite their fierce appearance and appetite for destruction, tropical systems are fickle beasts. It’s not just about a warm ocean. Nearly everything needs to go right in order for one to form. If too much dry air gets into the core of a tropical storm, or too much wind shear shreds its organization, you have a recipe for a system that’s dead on arrival. That’s exactly what’s happened so far this year. We can have all the ingredients necessary for an active season, but if they don’t come together at the right place and right time, it ends up being half-baked.
That said, we’re moving into the peak of hurricane season over the next couple of weeks. September is historically the most prolific month when it comes to tropical activity. And, right on cue, it looks like we could have up to three newly-minted storms (see top) by the end of the week.
While none are a direct threat to the mainland U.S. as it stands right now, we’ll need to stay weather-wise as we reach the climax of hurricane season.
