Your 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

CHARLOTTE, N.C. —  As the calendar turns to June, hurricane season is officially underway.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is calling for a near-to-above-average season, with 12-17 named storms, five-to-nine hurricanes, and one-to-four major hurricanes. Most other reputable agencies are calling for similar numbers.

So, what’s the reasoning behind a less active forecast this year? The answer lies in the Pacific Ocean.

The NHC believes there’s a 90% chance the phenomenon known as El Niño forms by the end of July. El Niño is associated with a band of warm water off of the equatorial Pacific coast of South America. This leads to a strengthening of easterly trade winds over the Atlantic, which creates shear that can disrupt hurricane formation. Despite this, our ever-warming climate will provide plenty of warm water for budding tropical systems to feed upon.

“So that means that there are going to be hurricanes,” says Michael Brennan, director of the NHC. “A near-normal season might sound good in comparison to some of the hurricane seasons we’ve had in the past few years, think back to 2020 and 2021, but there’s nothing good about a near-normal hurricane season in terms of activity.”

Take last year, for example.

Despite producing a pedestrian 14 named storms, 2022 ended up ranking as the third-costliest season on record – racking up over $118 billion in damage – mostly thanks to Hurricane Ian.

2020, which generated a jaw-dropping 30 named storms, is only seventh.

All of this goes to show that the quality of a season is way more important than the quantity of the storms it produces.

The last hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina was Dorian in 2019 — four years ago. In other words… we’re due.