NOAA is Now Forecasting an Above Average Atlantic Hurricane Season

Scientists with NOAA have updated their 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook from a near normal season to an above normal season.

The new outlook projects a likely range of 14-21 named storms, with winds greater than 39 mph. This is an increase from the projection of 12-17 named storms in May. Of those, they are projecting 6-11 becoming hurricanes with winds greater than 74 mph. This is also an increase from the original forecast of 5-9 named storms. They are also projecting 2-5 major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater – up from the forecast of 1-4 major hurricanes.

The average season has 14 named storms, of those 7 become hurricanes with 3 of those becoming major hurricanes.

There is high likelihood of El Nino continuing to influence weather patterns in the northern hemisphere into the winter. This would usually limit tropical activity in the Atlantic basin due to increased wind shear. The change in wind with height suppresses tropical development. However, the development of high shear has been slow to develop. While other conditions, such as record breaking sea surface temperatures and a near normal or above average West African monsoon season will help fuel tropical development as we near peak hurricane season next month.

There have been 5 storms that have reached at least tropical storm strength since the start of 2023, including an unnamed storm back in January. Don was the last named storm, and the only storm to reach hurricane strength. On average, there are just 3 named storms at this point in the season. The last few weeks have been more quiet in the Atlantic basin and that continues for now – with no tropical development forecasted for the next 7 days.

As of August 10, there is still more than 80% of the season remaining. The peak of hurricane season is September 10 with the most activity from mid-August until mid-October. The Atlantic Hurricane season began June 1 and will continue until November 30.