CHARLOTTE, N.C. — If you needed a reminder that it’s peak tropical development season in the Atlantic Basin, here it is.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is monitoring six disturbances as we head into the first weekend of September, including four named storms and a tropical depression. None of these systems are an immediate threat to the Carolinas or, for that matter, the U.S. mainland, but September is known as the Atlantic’s most active month for a reason.
Idalia
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is a shell of its former self. As of 5:00 p.m. Friday, Idalia is located roughly 100 miles west of Bermuda, packing winds of 50 miles per hour. While Idalia has been maintaining a wide wind field since exiting the Carolinas on Thursday, convection is minimal and disorganized. Nevertheless, sporadic heavy rain and gusty winds will continue to pummel Bermuda over the next 48 hours.
Idalia is expected to regain tropical characteristics as its core dives south of the island territory before turning north and losing strength. Regardless of development, Eastern Canada can count on minor impacts from Idalia or its remnants. Moderate-to-high-risk rip currents will exist across the Atlantic Coast of the U.S.
Franklin
Franklin has been a named storm for nearly two weeks, but its time as a fully tropical system is likely over with. As of the 5:00 p.m. Friday update, Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is packing hurricane-force winds, but has lost all tropical characteristics.
Franklin will continue to weaken as it moves northeastward and absorbs Tropical Storm Jose (see below). Long-range models show Franklin or its remnants impacting Western Europe by next weekend.
Jose
Tropical Storm Jose may have just gotten a name on Thursday, but it will be eaten by Franklin before it can get its legs underneath itself. The interaction between the two systems will weaken both significantly as they shear against each other like a battle between two Beyblades. Satellite and surface wind measurements suggest the absorption process is already underway.
Jose is not expected to make it past noon on Saturday before getting swallowed up by Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin.
Gert
Against all odds, Tropical Storm Gert won’t give up the ghost just yet. After degenerating into a remnant low almost two weeks ago, the storm maintained its structure and regained tropical storm status on Friday. As of Friday’s 5:00 p.m. update, Gert’s core is packing 50-mile-per-hour winds as it slowly moves southeastward.
Gert will turn sharply towards the north overnight before weakening back into a tropical depression by Monday. Gert will likely get absorbed into the trough carrying Post-Tropical Storm Franklin shortly after.
Tropical Depression Twelve and an area of low pressure emerging off of the Atlantic African coast may both become named storms by next week. The next two names on the list are Katia and Lee.
