Carolinas Winter Outlook

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — We’re not even halfway through autumn, but snow-lovers are already looking ahead to this winter season.

Winter completely flaked out on us last year – and not in a good way, if you’re a fan of snowmen and sledding. The October-to-May period between 2022 and 2023 was Charlotte’s first on record to fail to notch even a trace of the white stuff.

But here’s why snow lovers should be at least a little more hopeful this year.

It all starts with the phenomenon known as El Niño, which occurs when warmer water rises off the Pacific coast of South America. This, in turn, strengthens the subtropical jet stream while weakening the notorious polar vortex to the north. While this generally leads to warmer winters, it also leads to more cold snaps and storms – which could bring us some healthy snowfall this year.

Of course, it all depends on timing. And the trend hasn’t exactly been our friend. Winters have been trending warmer and less snowy over the past 20 years. Only three of the past 18 seasons have been above average in terms of snowfall.

So, it’s no guarantee that we’ll end up near or above average this year, since one or two snowfalls – or lack thereof – can make or break a winter season, but this should be the most favorable for snow in five years.

El Niño last struck in 2018, in which Charlotte saw a whopping *seven* inches of snow. It’s a welcome sign amid what has been a trend of not-snow-friendly winters this decade.