NOAA is Projecting an Active Hurricane Season

NOAA has released their 2024 Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast and it is projected to be another above average season. The forecast is for 17 to 25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), with 8 to 13 of those storms becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) and 4 to 7 of those storms becoming major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or higher).

The key driving factor in the forecast is the expected transition to La Nina this summer which plays a role in reducing hurricane activity in the Atlantic. As of May 2024, El Nino is weakening and transitioning to neutral conditions. Forecast models suggest that La Nina will develop by the middle or late summer. This is significant because La Nina conditions typically reduce wind shear in the Atlantic basin. Shear is the the change of wind speed and direction with height. Less wind shear, would allow storms to strengthen and intensify without being torn apart.

Sea surface temperatures are also much warmer than average. This means more energy, or fuel for storms to intensify. Another key factor is the African Monsoon season which could also help with the development of storms.

These favorable conditions means an increase in the number of storms than average. There is also a higher likelihood of these storms to strengthen into hurricanes or major hurricanes due to the warmer ocean waters and decreased shear.