CHARLOTTE, N.C. — As of the 11 AM update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Fred remains a tropical depression with winds approaching 35 mph. While Fred may be down, it certainly is not out. A general strengthening trend should arise by the weekend as it treks over mostly open waters and takes aim at the Gulf Coast.
Fred’s recovery since being shredded apart by the mountainous terrain has been slow, but it certainly looks more impressive on satellite now than it did 24 hours ago. That said, Fred’s appearance is still frayed and unorganized. Virtually all of the shower and storm activity associated with the system is stuck on the south and east side of the central circulation, exposing the core to dry air and wind shear. Until Fred’s eye can get some protection, strengthening will likely not occur.
Even so, the general forecast from the NHC calls for strengthening by the weekend. Expect Fred to regain tropical storm status Friday night or Saturday morning as it traverses the Old Bahama Canal and enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If the storm stays over open water rather than making landfall in Florida, further strengthening is possible. A low-end Category 1 hurricane is not out of the realm of possibility if it stays on the western edge of the forecast track. Very favorable conditions are persisting in the Gulf of Mexico, which could lead to rapid strengthening if land interaction is minimal.
Needless to say, there are still a lot of moving parts to Fred’s future.
Bottom-line:
The general trend on Fred’s track continues to move westward. While that may lead to a stronger storm, it could start to take away direct tropical impacts from encroaching upon the WCCB Charlotte viewing area. Having said that, keep in mind that the NHC’s track only covers the center circulation, not the storm in general. Fred will likely be an expansive system spanning hundreds of miles across. Prepare for a wet and windy Monday through Wednesday as Fred moves inland.
It’s important to keep in mind that the peak of hurricane season is only one month away. On average, 80-90% of all hurricanes form between August and October, peaking in mid-September. No matter how active or inactive a season is, remember: it only takes one storm for a season to be memorable.
