CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Tropical Storm Fred has made landfall along the Florida Panhandle this afternoon with winds of 65 mph. Fred will continue its march inland and could bring some nasty impacts to the Carolinas tomorrow (Tuesday). In fact, rain from its outer bands is already here. Let’s break down the forecast.
I want to be clear here: the biggest threat with Fred will be flash flooding, especially west of the Metro, where upwards of a half-foot of rain could fall along the Foothills and High Country. Widspread gusty showers and storms will continue to pound the WCCB Charlotte viewing area off-and-on tonight before a more steady diet of rain arrives by Tuesday afternoon. Expect rain and storms to largely clear out from southwest to northeast by noon on Wednesday.
Rain
Once again, the biggest threat from Fred will be flash flooding, where a solid 4-8″ of rain could fall in our Foothills and High Country through Wednesday morning. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for Burke, Caldwell, and Avery counties through midweek. I expect more watches (and eventually, warnings) to follow. The heaviest of the rain should move in by Tuesday afternoon, which could lead to rainfall rates of 1-2″ per hour. I’m most concerned about south-facing slopes, which could provide a “damming” effect to the rain as they push up against the mountains. Totals will likely sharply cut off west to east, which leaves the Metro around 1-3″ and possibly under an inch farther east.
Wind
While Fred will be significantly weaker by the time it moves into the Carolinas, it still will pack a punch. Heavy showers and storms could bring wind gusts approaching 40 mph in some spots, which will be enough to knock over trees and powerlines weakened by the soggy ground. Scattered power outages, mainly west of Charlotte, will be likely as we head deeper into Tuesday.
Tornado
The tornado/overall severe threat has spiked significantly in recent model trends, although it isn’t super high. Even still, we’ll need to watch carefully for spin-ups along a line of storms that moves in Tuesday afternoon and evening (pictured above). Similarly to the rainfall threat, it looks like areas west of I-77 should see the worst impacts. Some strong storms could move into the Metro after sunset, which could make things even more dangerous. The severe threat largely subsides overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as the system moves out.
Bottomline
Fred will be a powerful rainmaker for the western half of the WCCB Charlotte viewing area, but the severe threat is not insignificant, either. With strong storms possible well into Tuesday evening, stay WeatherWise and make sure your phone is charged and ready to receive alerts should they arrive.
