Days after becoming the earliest “E” storm on record, Elsa is now the first hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The 1991-2020 average date for the first Atlantic hurricane formation is August 14th – so we are way ahead of schedule.
Forecast models indicate Elsa will weaken over the weekend as it interacts with Cuba before reaching the United States. The forecast beyond the Caribbean is still in question – it depends on the strength of the high pressure over the Atlantic. Still a decent amount of uncertainty so something to watch. IF it were to impact the Carolinas it would not be until Wednesday/Thursday of next week.
The big key for us is how strong the area of high pressure will remain in the Atlantic ocean. If it weakens, the storm will shift eastward. If it stays strong, the storm will shift westward. There is low confidence in the long range forecast as of Friday evening so it is something we just need to watch closely.
It’s still way too early for specifics, but the back half of the week looks messy if the storm ends up making a close approach. Stay tuned and download our WCCB Weather App as Elsa progresses.