NOAA Releases 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA has released its 2023 hurricane season outlook. It is predicting a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

The forecast project includes a likely range of 12-17 named storms. The average is 14 named storms. Of those named storms, 5-9 are projected to become hurricanes with 1-4 of those becoming major hurricanes. The average is 7 hurricanes per season with 3 of those becoming major hurricanes.

There are several factors contributing to this near-normal forecast. First, is the high likelihood of El Nino developing this summer. El Nino tends to increase wind shear in the Atlantic basin. This change in wind with height suppresses tropical development. However, there is also potential for a more active west-African monsoon season and warmer than average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin — both of which help fuel tropical storm development.

The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.