CHARLOTTE, N.C.– As of the latest update, Hurricane Dorian is holding steady as a Category 1 hurricane with winds estimated at 85 mph. Expect Dorian to move in a more westward fashion over the next several days with strengthening even further. The National Hurricane Center has Dorian becoming a Category 3 major hurricane by the end of the week as it reaches the east coast of Florida.
While the sharp northward turn that Dorian made earlier this week spared Puerto Rico and other hurricane-weary Caribbean nations from a direct hit, it did afford the hurricane plenty of space to intensify further. Dorian is now in an area conducive to hurricane development with minimal shear and lots of warm water to feed the system over the next couple of days. I would not be surprised if Dorian even reaches Category 4 strength (winds: 130-156 mph) as it approaches the US mainland.
Another uncertainty at the moment is Dorian’s track as it moves closer to the East Coast. There is good agreement that Dorian takes another turn to the north at SOME point over the next week, but the key sticking point is exactly when that will happen.
Here are the three main scenarios I see playing out in order of likelihood:
1. Dorian continues to barrel west-northwestward and makes landfall in east-central Florida as a major hurricane. Shortly after landfall, Dorian turns to the north and essential cuts right through the center of Florida and moves up through the Southeast. At the moment, this appears to be the most likely scenario. If this plays out, the western Carolinas could see some pockets of heavy rainfall and occasional gusty winds.
2. As Dorian approaches Florida, it turns to the north before making landfall and scrapes along the Southeast coast before making landfall or turning out to see. In this scenario, the western Carolinas would likely be spared of most, if not all, of the impacts. For the eastern Carolinas, however, this would likely be the worst-case scenario (impacts would likely be similar to Hurricane Matthew in 2016). The more recent model runs appear to be trending away from this situation for now.
3. Dorian slices through Florida and ends up in the Gulf of Mexico before re-strengthening and making another landfall somewhere in the Deep South. This appears to be the most unlikely scenario right now.
SUMMARY: Dorian will likely become a major hurricane at some point by the weekend and will pose a serious threat to the East Coast, chiefly Florida. The entire Southeast should monitor this storm as it continues to develop and move closer to the US mainland. As always, stay weather wise and keep it here at WCCB as this situation progresses!
