Economists Forecast A 2021 Economic Surge As Vaccine Distribution Continues

CHARLOTTE, NC – Encouraging news about North Carolina’s economy. Forecasters anticipate a roaring 2021, but it likely hinges on effective vaccine distribution and minimal COVID mutations. 

“The addition of a third vaccine is also an important milestone. And we’re still working through the challenges of our limited supply,” said Novant Health Dr. Nikki Nissen. 

She says she is optimistic about the spring as hospitalizations across the Novant Health system reach 150 people, which is down from 500 to start the year. 

“The reality is that this downward trend is quite a relief, but continued caution is necessary particularly as businesses continue to open,” said Dr. Nissen.

The push to vaccinate comes as new numbers show a quick economic recovery.

The U.S. added more than 379,000 jobs in February, far more than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 6.2% down from 6.3%. 

“The thing to remember is last year was a roller coaster,” said John Connaughton, a Economics professor at UNC Charlotte. 

Connaughton laid out the 2021 economic forecast. 

“The only one that is really holding us back is hospitality and leisure services,” said Connaughton.

He says the state lost more than 300,000 hotel, restaurant and leisure jobs when the pandemic hit. It’s the only job sector slow to recover. 

“Most other sectors are going to be above where we were at the end of 2019 and they’ll offset the continued decrease in jobs in the hospitality and leisure sector,” Connaughton explained. 

Connaughton forecasts state unemployment to continue to decline while the state’s Gross Domestic Product increases 2021. But a lot depends on COVID and the vaccine roll out. 

“If we continue to get big numbers of people being vaccinated then we are well on our way in terms of a recovery,” said Connaughton.