NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured this image of Hurricane Laura on August 26, 2020, as it approached the Gulf Coast. (NOAA)
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — We’re fresh off the most active hurricane season in recorded history, and it doesn’t look like there will be much rest for the storm-weary in 2021. In an unsurprising move, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is calling for another above-average hurricane season. In a media release from Thursday afternoon, the scientific agency gives this season a 60% chance of overperforming the average, compared to only a 10% chance of being below-average. The possibility of an average season collects the remaining 30%.
NOAA’s outlook comes as multiple other outlets – including North Carolina State University, Colorado State University, and The Weather Channel – have already forecast an above-average hurricane season for 2021. NOAA’s prediction is for 13-20 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major (Cat. 3+) hurricanes. An “average” hurricane season spawns 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
2021 Hurricane Outlook
| Tropical Storms | Hurricanes | Major Hurricanes | |
| NOAA | 13-20 | 6-10 | 3-5 |
| CSU | 17 | 8 | 4 |
| NCSU | 15-18 | 7-9 | 2-3 |
| The Weather Channel | 18 | 8 | 3 |
| Average Season | 14 | 7 | 3 |
The 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, although storms can and will develop at any time. In fact, it looks like the Atlantic will spawn a named storm before the official start of the season for the seventh year in a row. As mentioned earlier, 2020 was a record-breaking year, spawning 30 named systems from May to November. While we look to be on track for another active season, chances are we won’t repeat last year’s performance.
As the Atlantic Basin heats up, remember that it only takes one storm to make a “bad” season. Stay WeatherWise and download our WCCB Weather App, powered by COIT.
