The key driving factor in the forecast is the expected development of a strong El Niño pattern. El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic Basin, creating less favorable conditions for tropical development. Wind shear is the change in wind speed and direction with height in the atmosphere. When wind shear becomes too strong, it can disrupt developing storms and prevent them from strengthening or organizing efficiently.
Because of the anticipated El Niño conditions, NOAA says the overall environment across the Atlantic is expected to be less supportive for hurricane formation compared to the very active seasons seen in recent years.
Even with a below-average forecast, forecasters continue to stress that it only takes one storm making landfall to create major impacts, which is why hurricane preparedness remains important throughout the entire season.
Hurricane season begins June 1 through November 30th
